The IndyCar season is now approaching a frantic pace as we head towards the month of May and the Indy 500. There’s no off-week this weekend as 23 cars will line up to take on the famous streets of Long Beach, California on Sunday for the season’s fourth race. The teams will have almost a month off following the Acura Grand Prix of Long Beach before they head to the Indianapolis Road Course on May 11, followed by the Indy 500 on May 26.
Josef Newgarden enters the weekend with a 27-point lead over Scott Dixon for the championship lead. Newgarden has finished in the top-10 for his last four starts at Long Beach but has only finished on one podium in 2017. Dixon hasn’t had as much success on the street circuit as he has at many other tracks on the calendar. He’s only won once here in 2015 during the past 10 seasons, and he’s only finished within the top-five in four of those 10 races. He finished 11th at Long Beach last season for his second-worst finish of his championship season, but he finished within the top-five in 2015-17.
This circuit has one of the widest varieties of winners over the past decade, with eight current drivers having stood upon the top step of the podium. However, there’s been a first-time winner each of the past four years. Six of the current drivers (Ryan-Hunter Reay in 2010, Takuma Sato in 2013, Dixon in 2015, Simon Pagenaud in 2016, James Hinchcliffe in 2017 and Alexander Rossi in 2018) have only won the race once. Will Power was victorious in 2008 and 2012, while Sebastien Bourdais won three-straight times at the track during the Champ Car era.
With the past string of results at the track, it really is a wide-open race at this point in the season. No team has shown particular dominance at the track in the past decade, with Andretti having the highest win total of three.
Race Predictions
Pole: Alexander Rossi
Winner: Scott Dixon
2nd Place: Alexander Rossi
3rd Place: Will Power
Although it’s very early in the season, Rossi and Newgarden are the only two drivers to finish in the top-10 for all three races. Rossi grabbed a pole and win at Long Beach last season that put him ahead in the championship early in the year, and it seems like it’s time that Rossi gets back in the hunt after already trailing Newgarden by 40 points back in fourth place. Dixon already has two runner-up performances through three races, and I expect him to bounce back to show his pace from the past couple of races at Long Beach to take the win.
Power has had a tough start to the season after a mechanical problem at COTA and a spin out at Barber, but no run of tough form ever seems to be able to hold him down for long. Last week was the first time since Road America last year (nine races) that he hadn’t led at least one lap at a race. I think he will battle with the Honda leaders but just fall short in a closely-contested race.
Newgarden should be able to keep his championship lead by finishing within the top-10. Expect veteran Honda drivers like Hunter-Reay, Bourdais, Hinchcliffe and Rahal to mix it up for top-five positions after solid starts to the year. Rookies Colton Herta, Felix Rosenqvist and Marcus Ericsson have each shown one really strong result through three races, but making those finishes consistent will be key to battling with these series leaders as the season progresses.
Race: Sunday, Apr. 14 at 3:30 p.m. CST, NBC Sports Network
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