Rossi Dominates at Long Beach

Alexander Rossi led 80 of the 85 laps on Sunday at the Long Beach Grand Prix to win his first race since Pocono last year. Rossi closed within 28 points of season leader Josef Newgarden and now sits second in the championship standings. Rossi grabbed pole on Saturday with a final lap that easily outpaced the rest of the field, and he showcased that same speed on Sunday by winning by the gigantic margin of 20 seconds on runner-up Newgarden.

Winners

  • Alexander Rossi. Rossi is still the only driver along with Newgarden to finish within the top-10 in every race this season, but he needed to put together a big points haul with a win to firmly get back into the championship race he was so deeply involved with last season. While he had two additional podiums to begin his 2018 season, the win at Long Beach really seemed to propel him as a legitimate front runner for most of the season before Dixon’s consistency and strong results got the better of him in 2018. He still has some work to do to catch Newgarden for the lead, so the month of May will have the usual large implications for how the rest of the season may unfold. Considering he’s finished within the top-seven in all three of his appearances at the Indy 500 (including a victory), I’d say the advantage currently goes to Rossi.
  • Josef Newgarden. The championship leader actually managed to extend his lead by a point after the 27-point advantage he had on Scott Dixon entering the weekend. The Honda’s were clearly the stronger cars all weekend, but Newgarden and Will Power managed to lock out the second row in qualifying for the Chevy’s. A stall by Santino Ferrucci almost ended Newgarden’s podium chances after he stayed out a few extra laps before the opening pit stop to lead for two laps. If a full-course caution would’ve came out, Newgarden would’ve suffered a similar fate to Rossi and Power at COTA last month. Luckily for him, the race stayed green and allowed him to jump two positions from fourth to second after a quick in-lap and pit stop. His fourth top-four finish to start the year has seen him at the top of the standings since his opening win at St. Pete’s, and the podium finish at Long Beach was especially important to keep a gap to his rivals.
  • Scott Dixon. After running in third behind Newgarden after the first cycle of pit stops, Dixon had a fuel attachment issue in the pits on his final stop that doubled his time in the pits and caused him to re-enter the field a distant fifth. He closed down Ryan Hunter-Reay with only three laps remaining, and he ran hard for Graham Rahal for the final podium position on the final lap. Rahal was out of push-to-pass and managed to slow Dixon down to narrowly take third place, but race control determined Rahal had blocked Dixon. Rahal was forced to give up the position after the checkered flag and concede his podium finish. Dixon drops to third in the standings, but he only lost six additional points to Newgarden after the poorly-timed pit error.

Losers

  • Will Power. Another difficult week for the defending Indy-500 winner came after an overboost error during a difficult stretch of the race. Power had just passed Dixon for third after the first cycle of pit stops, but he lost speed coming out of a corner and Dixon charged up behind him. Power tried to counter by going off line before he overshot the corner and had to go into the runoff area before coming back in eighth place. There was little passing for most of the day, but Power had a good recovery drive to finish the race in seventh. Despite an incident at three of the four races this season, Power still sits in sixth place overall. Another double-victory in Indianapolis in May might be exactly what he needs to get back into the championship hunt.
  • Colton Herta. After sitting in the top-five overall after his win at COTA, Herta fell all the way back to 10th overall after another last-place finish this weekend. Herta had already lost a few positions earlier in the race when a crew member forgot to get rid of his tire gun during the pit stop, and it only got worse when Herta crashed into a wall before limping back to the pits to finish in 23rd. Two-straight finishes in last place following his first career win perfectly sums up how fates can change week-to-week for small teams in IndyCar.
  • Marcus Ericsson. After getting plenty of praise last week after his drive to seventh place at Barber, Ericsson followed it up by hitting Jack Harvey on lap one into the flower beds surrounding the famous fountain at Long Beach. The contact caused the only caution of the entire race and forced Ericsson to take a drive-through penalty on lap five for avoidable contact. After qualifying last in his group, this is likely a week he will try to quickly forget before he heads to Indy.
  • Simon Pagenaud. This pick may seem strange since he finished in sixth place, but the lack of any exciting moves from Pagenaud continues to be a cause for concern. He currently sits in 11th overall in the series and hasn’t won in 23 races. Those kinds of stats aren’t going to please “The Captain” Roger Penske, and Pagenaud is beginning to run out of time to find results that may keep him at Penske for any years to come.

How my picks finished

I correctly picked Rossi to grab pole again this year, but I was slightly off by picking him to finish as runner-up to Dixon. I didn’t expect Newgarden to fare as well considering his past results at Long Beach, but I’m happy to say he proved me wrong by putting in a stellar drive. I had Dixon for the win as he finished back in third, so I was just as successful as my first week of predictions when I picked the pole sitter and two of the three podium finishers. I’ve yet to pick any of the podium finishers in their exact position, which may change when they head to the Indianapolis Grand Prix on May 11.

Long Beach Preview

Team Penske works on their cars at the 2017 Kohler Grand Prix.

The IndyCar season is now approaching a frantic pace as we head towards the month of May and the Indy 500. There’s no off-week this weekend as 23 cars will line up to take on the famous streets of Long Beach, California on Sunday for the season’s fourth race. The teams will have almost a month off following the Acura Grand Prix of Long Beach before they head to the Indianapolis Road Course on May 11, followed by the Indy 500 on May 26.

Josef Newgarden enters the weekend with a 27-point lead over Scott Dixon for the championship lead. Newgarden has finished in the top-10 for his last four starts at Long Beach but has only finished on one podium in 2017. Dixon hasn’t had as much success on the street circuit as he has at many other tracks on the calendar. He’s only won once here in 2015 during the past 10 seasons, and he’s only finished within the top-five in four of those 10 races. He finished 11th at Long Beach last season for his second-worst finish of his championship season, but he finished within the top-five in 2015-17.

This circuit has one of the widest varieties of winners over the past decade, with eight current drivers having stood upon the top step of the podium. However, there’s been a first-time winner each of the past four years. Six of the current drivers (Ryan-Hunter Reay in 2010, Takuma Sato in 2013, Dixon in 2015, Simon Pagenaud in 2016, James Hinchcliffe in 2017 and Alexander Rossi in 2018) have only won the race once. Will Power was victorious in 2008 and 2012, while Sebastien Bourdais won three-straight times at the track during the Champ Car era.

With the past string of results at the track, it really is a wide-open race at this point in the season. No team has shown particular dominance at the track in the past decade, with Andretti having the highest win total of three.

Race Predictions

Pole: Alexander Rossi

Winner: Scott Dixon

2nd Place: Alexander Rossi

3rd Place: Will Power

Although it’s very early in the season, Rossi and Newgarden are the only two drivers to finish in the top-10 for all three races. Rossi grabbed a pole and win at Long Beach last season that put him ahead in the championship early in the year, and it seems like it’s time that Rossi gets back in the hunt after already trailing Newgarden by 40 points back in fourth place. Dixon already has two runner-up performances through three races, and I expect him to bounce back to show his pace from the past couple of races at Long Beach to take the win.

Power has had a tough start to the season after a mechanical problem at COTA and a spin out at Barber, but no run of tough form ever seems to be able to hold him down for long. Last week was the first time since Road America last year (nine races) that he hadn’t led at least one lap at a race. I think he will battle with the Honda leaders but just fall short in a closely-contested race.

Newgarden should be able to keep his championship lead by finishing within the top-10. Expect veteran Honda drivers like Hunter-Reay, Bourdais, Hinchcliffe and Rahal to mix it up for top-five positions after solid starts to the year. Rookies Colton Herta, Felix Rosenqvist and Marcus Ericsson have each shown one really strong result through three races, but making those finishes consistent will be key to battling with these series leaders as the season progresses.

Race: Sunday, Apr. 14 at 3:30 p.m. CST, NBC Sports Network

Sato Drives to Another Win

Takuma Sato led for 72 of the 90 laps at Barber Motorsports Park on Sunday afternoon and put in an almost flawless performance for his fourth career victory in IndyCar. Sato led from pole and only had small missteps through a long first pit stop due to a rear tire not attaching properly and going off the track with five laps to go. His slide off the track opened the door for Scott Dixon to close within one second of Sato as the Japanese driver suffered some damage to the floor of the car, but he was able to come home with the victory by almost 2.5 seconds. Sebastien Bourdais tried to close down on Dixon for second in the final lap after having significantly more Push to Pass remaining. However, Dixon held him off and took him his record sixth runner-up finish at Barber.

Rossi made a quick jump from eighth up to fifth in the early stages of the race, but he maintained a similar position for the rest of the day. James Hinchcliffe also put in a mistake-free drive but came home in sixth after a mostly uneventful day before Josef Newgarden slid past him in the closing stages of the race.

Winners

  • Takuma Sato. A disappointing return to Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing last season was briefly forgotten due to his victory in the penultimate race at Portland in September of 2018. Sato’s win from pole at Barber is his second win in the last five races of the NTT IndyCar series, and both wins came at road courses for the first time in his career. RLL got it right in qualifying and all day on Sunday, and Sato was thoroughly pleased and grateful to his entire team after he got out of his car in victory lane. The 42-year-old isn’t showing any signs of slowing down after winning a race for the third consecutive season, and he now sits in third place in the championship as they head to Long Beach next week for the site of his first win in the series back in 2013.
  • Scott Dixon. The five-time series champ was in fine form again on Sunday after qualifying in third place. He didn’t put a wheel wrong all day but just wasn’t quick enough to catch the speed of Sato. The runner-up finish was his sixth time in 10 years at Barber, one of the few tracks on the calendar he has yet to come away from victorious.
  • Sebastien Bourdais. He was the only driver to make a two-stop pit strategy work to perfection and make his red Firestone tires last almost a full 30 laps. The caution came out at a time that was beneficial for him to make it to the end of the race on fuel, and luckily the pits didn’t close before the leaders made their way through pit lane. After suffering an engine failure early into his season opener, Bourdais has put in consecutive top-five performances to sit ahead of past champions like Hunter-Reay and Power after three races.
  • Josef Newgarden. While a fourth place finish is below his recent run of three victories in four years at Barber, Newgarden will be happy to escape the weekend with a maximum result after starting the race in 16th. The Chevy driver sliced his way through the field and stayed near the front of the second pack of runners after taking one of the earlier pit stops on lap 10. His wheel-to-wheel move on Rossi at the hairpin was a decisive moment in the day, along with his pass of Hinchcliffe only moments earlier to claw his way up to his third top-five finish of the year.
  • Marcus Ericsson. The Swede put in his best finish in an open wheel race since his final GP2 race in 2013 by finishing seventh at Barber. After qualifying all the way back in 20th, Ericsson was the first to stop for tires on lap six and put in quick lap times to get within the thick of things early. He was the biggest mover of the day and accomplished multiple passes on track that he rarely could attempt in his Formula 1 days with Sauber. His pace at COTA two weeks ago before an unsafe release showed the talent that fans knew was always there, and his drive from the back of the field makes me think he will be in IndyCar for years to come.
  • Honda. Seven of the top eight finishers were Honda-powered cars, while the Penske’s had problems keeping pace all day. A track that has been Chevy-dominated for years finally turned around after strong performances from RLL, Ganassi, Arrow and Dale Coyne Racing.

Losers

  • Colton Herta. It was going to be difficult to follow up his win at COTA in only his third career start, but he only made it a little over 30 laps before his car started to lose power and he was forced to retire from the race. Despite the 24th place finish, he is still fifth in the championship standings and is the only rookie within the top-10.
  • Graham Rahal. Rahal put the car just behind his teammate Sato on Saturday for an RLL 1-2 qualifying effort for the first time in over 15 years. Rahal was running well in second during the first stint before he had to take a 27-second pit stop to attempt to fix a throttle issue that saw him fall back to 16th. He ended up bringing out the only caution of the day when his car stalled on track during lap 58.
  • Ed Jones. The new driver for Ed Carpenter Racing has had a tough go of it this year, and his false start of about 10 cars was almost comical to watch on the replay. The error caused him to serve a drive through penalty at the beginning of the race from which he never fully recovered.
  • Team Penske/Chevy. Despite Newgarden climbing up to fourth place, Team Penske let good results escape from them at one of their most reliable tracks this weekend. Pagenaud and Power could only come away with ninth and 11th place, while the Chevy of Spencer Pigot slid all the way back down to 17th after serving a penalty for an unsafe release while trying to make a two-stop strategy work. It’s difficult to know where to place Power after Sunday, because despite a spin out and four pit stops, he managed to almost maintain a top-10 finish in a car that wasn’t close to the Honda’s in pace all weekend.

How my picks finished

I picked a Penske podium before the weekend began, so to say Sunday’s picks were a miss would be a bit of an understatement. Let’s hope I can look a little more intelligent this Sunday when the series makes its fourth stop of the year by traveling to California for the Long Beach Grand Prix.

Barber Preview

Team Penske checks body pieces for Simon Pagenaud and Josef Newgarden at the 2017 Kohler Grand Prix.

The NTT IndyCar series will make their third stop of the season when they travel to Barber Motorsports Park this Sunday. Josef Newgarden enters the race on top of the championship standings after finishing second at Circuit of the Americas following his win at St. Petersburg.

The biggest surprise through the first two races is Circuit of the Americas winner Colton Herta and the Harding Steinbrenner team. Outlook for the young team looked bleak after news that they had to cut ties with Pato O’Ward prior to the season due to budget issues and would be fielding a one-car entry of Herta. Herta led three of the four preseason testing sessions at COTA in February, but it’s difficult to read too much into if what happens before the opener at St. Pete’s will affect the actual season.

Will Power and Alexander Rossi were clearly the fastest at COTA, but unfortunate timing for a crash between James Hinchcliffe and Felix Rosenqvist caused the pit lane to close on a caution and allow third-place Herta to acquire the lead for the closing stretch of the race. Power had a problem leaving the pits that caused him to retire from the race, while Rossi climbed back up to ninth in the closing laps.

Newgarden will be excited to arrive at Barber this weekend after winning the race three of the past four seasons. It’s the only track where has the most career wins at on the calendar and is the closest location to his hometown of Hendersonville, Tennessee. He has finished on the podium the past four years and has finished within the top-10 in six of his seven entries at Barber.

Last year was the first season he had taken pole at the track, and he will be looking to use that advantage to get his second win of the year. He already has about a 40-point advantage to front runners like Scott Dixon, Rossi and Power after each have had a disappointing result in the first two races. A showcase of his usual dominance in Alabama will go a long way in seeing if Newgarden can chase his second championship with Penske.

The 90-lap race at Barber has been run since 2010 and has occurred in April for all nine events. Team Penske has won the race six times, with two wins coming from Ryan Hunter-Reay at Andretti and one from Newgarden when he raced for CFH Racing for a season before joining Penske. Power won at the track in 2011 and 2012 and should’ve taken the win in 2017 before a tire gauge malfunction caused the Penske team to bring Power in during the final laps as Newgarden inherited another win. Simon Pagenaud also won at Barber during his 2016 championship season.

Race Predictions

Pole: Josef Newgarden

Winner: Josef Newgarden

2nd place: Will Power

3rd place: Simon Pagenaud

Until someone breaks the streak of Penske dominance at Barber, it seems silly to predict this race to go any other way. Newgarden has his best start of his career through two races and should be poised to take pole after claiming it last season and barely missing it at St. Petersburg. Will Power is still hunting down Mario Andretti’s record of 67 career poles and is well on his way after claiming his 55th and 56th career pole at St. Pete’s and COTA to begin the season. Power could’ve had a chance at the win last season before a dangerously wet track claimed him on lap 17 of the race on a restart and forced a red flag period that wasn’t resumed until the next day. Pagenaud has only been on a podium twice in his last 19 races and should have the ability to stay competitive with his two Penske teammates at a track that has been very kind to them in recent years.

Dixon, Rossi, Hunter-Reay and the other Hondas will need to put in strong performances if they’re going to upset the Penske trio and keep them off the podium. Keep an eye on if Herta can build off his first win from two weeks ago or if Pato O’Ward can push higher than his top-10 finish at COTA. Marcus Ericsson also had tough luck with a pit penalty at COTA after running close to the top-five, and he will be on a mission to put in his first solid performance in his young IndyCar career.

Race: Sunday, Apr. 7 at 3 p.m. CST, NBC Sports Network